Open Forum

New Delhi, 19 December 2008

Jammu & Kashmir Poll

BALLOT SCORES OVER BULLETS

By Sant Kumar Sharma

In Jammu and Kashmir elections the spotlight for once is not on wanton violence, but on the high polling percentage. This can only be a welcome change, however short-lived it may prove, on a later date.  In fact, the focus is far more on the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attack and the gun-carriers in the State seem to be biding their time, deciding to lie low for now and not invite a harsh response from the government.

On Wednesday last, in the sixth and penultimate round of polling in the troubled State, 16 constituencies recorded a voter turnout of almost 66 per cent . More significantly, polling remained peaceful and no untoward incident was reported from anywhere in these constituencies spread over five districts. These included Kishtwar, Ramban and Doda in the Jammu region. Newly-created district of Kulgam and Anantnag in the Kashmir valley also saw voters turn out in large numbers to exercise their franchise.

During the 2002 Assembly elections as also the 1996 elections, it was almost routine to hear of candidates being killed, mostly independents or even some owing allegiance to mainstream parties. In addition, security forces personnel too were targeted in large numbers by the militants. This time around, the elections have remained, by and large, peaceful, till date with the militants appearing to be on the back foot. Importantly, the voters have clearly defied the separatists’ diktat to boycott the polls.

Remember, these elections are being held in the aftermath of the Amarnath land row, with the Jammu region and the Kashmir region sharply divided on the issue. Analysts had compared the rallies during the height of the land row in Kashmir to the initial days of uprising in Kashmir in the 90s. They had also expressed fears that holding of elections at such a time would in all probability lead to very low voter participation.

These fears have been belied. The electorate has defied predictions and the separatists’ threats. They came out to vote despite the severe cold, with snowfall and rain sweeping these constituencies a couple of days earlier. This phase decides the fate of two chief ministers, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and Ghulam Nabi Azad..

It is more or less apparent that the State is going to witness one of the highest polling percentages ever-recorded during these Assembly elections. The last round of polling remains, December 24, during which 21 Assembly constituencies spread over districts of Jammu, Srinagar and Samba will go to vote.  The way in which the election campaigning has been going on in the Jammu and newly-created Samba district, it appears that the polling in these areas will be high, unlike in the past when the voters of these mostly urban areas have showed scant regard to their vote.

Of course, there is still a question mark on the polling percentage in Srinagar district, a stronghold of separatist and secessionist leaders of various hues. In 2002, this district had recorded the lowest polling percentage and several Assembly segments had witnessed less than 10 per cent votes cast. The overall percentage of voting recorded in Srinagar was 11.17 per cent. Even this was made up because of the comparatively better percentage of voting recorded in Ganderbal (35.20 per cent) and Kangan (52.02 per cent) segments. This time around, Ganderbal and Kangan have been carved out into a separate district of Ganderbal.

The other eight constituencies of Srinagar district had recorded less than 10 per cent voting, with Amirakadal constituency witnessing only 3.06 voting. Of the 74,442 voters who were eligible to cast their vote in Amirakadal, only 2,280 had exercised their franchise. Congress candidate Mohammed Shafi Bhat had won by polling only 1,163 votes!

The distinction of winning an Assembly election with the smallest number of votes in 2002 had gone to independent candidate Raman Mattoo, who polled only 587 votes in Habbakadal segment.  Likewise, Batmaloo had recorded four per cent voting, Khanyar only 4.21 per cent, Idgah only 4.74 per cent, Zadibal only 4.78 per cent, Hazratbal only 7.11 per cent and Sonawar also narrowly missed the double digit mark as it saw a polling percentage of only 9.96.

But this time around National Conference patron Farooq Abdullah’s presence in the field is likely to boost up the polling percentage in Hazratbal and Sonawar constituencies. Besides, absence of violence in the first six phases is also likely to encourage voters to come out in good numbers during the last phase. The south Kashmir district of Anantnag has been the home turf of the Muftis. In fact, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had won most of its seats in 2002 Assembly elections from south Kashmir only.

Noorabad constituency in Kulgam district recorded a turnout of over 72 per cent, unprecedented when we compare it to the past three elections held in 2002, 1996 and 1987. Mufti’s trusted aide and senior PDP leader Abdul Aziz Zargar is contesting from this constituency and hoping to make it two in a row. He trounced the NC candidate Sakina Ittoo, who along with his supporters alleged that the PDP leader had used its alleged contacts with militants to browbeat them during canvassing.

Interestingly, Zargar’s name was linked to the Akshardham temple attack in Gujarat but nothing concrete had come out of these allegations and insinuations. At one time, it was said that some of the militants who had participated in this attack were known to Zargar.

Kulgam constituency, from where Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Mohammed Yusuf Tarigami has been elected twice in succession recorded a high of 60 per cent voting. Homeshalibug recorded 49%, Devsar 58%, Anantnag 37%, Dooru 69%, Kokernag 57%, Shangus 67%, Bijebehera 57% and Pahalgam recorded 56%.

In three districts lying to south of mighty Pir Panjal Mountains, Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban also, the polling percentage was very high. Kishtwar Assembly constituency recorded a whopping 75% turnout, remote Inderwal 72%, Doda 70%, Bhaderwah 65%, Ramban 64% and Banihal 63%. In comparison, the final poll percentage in the 2002 poll were far less in these 16 Assembly constituencies: Noorabad 23.41%, Kulgam 24.40%, Homeshalibug 22.93%, Devsar 35.56%, Anantnag 7.16%, Dooru 40.48%, Kokernag 15.27%, Shangus 25.40%, Bijbehara 16.67%, Pahalgam 33.02%, Kishtwar 54.82%, Inderwal 56.61%¸ Doda 55.54%, Bhadarwah 54.25%, Ramban 57.71% and Banihal Assembly constituency 40.55% voter turnout.

For Noorabad, the polling percentage has shown more than a three-fold increase between 2002 and this time--from 23.41% to over 72%. For Anantnag constituency, the voter participation has risen more than five-fold, from a dismal 7.16% to 37.03%.

With Pakistan facing unprecedented international pressure, the militants’ guns eerily silent and an unprecedented  voter participation in Jammu & Kashmir,  will the situation veer around  to better days in the State? Only time will tell. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 30 December 2008

Nuclear Deal & Aftermath

TAKE ISSUE TO PEOPLE THIS POLL

By Dr MM Kapur

The recent Assembly elections have clearly shown that issues such as the Indo-US nuclear deal and internal security, which have hogged headlines for months were not poll issues for the aam aadmi. These were seen more as national issues which should be addressed in the forthcoming General elections, slated for April/May. 

What is of particular interest is whether and how our political parties would take the nuclear pact to the people, since it is already a done deal. The Parties must remember that the value of the deal for the aam aadmi continues to be elusive like the bird in the bush and remains of doubtful value in the short and medium term.  It is our hope that some benefit may trickle down to the aam aadmi in the long term.

The reason for the desperate hurry to sign the agreement has little to do with the immediate needs of the aam aadmi and lies elsewhere with business and political needs at home and in the US.

To be able to asses the precise need for the deal we have to examine our nuclear energy generation programme progress so far. India has its nuclear power plants in operation, run by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCI). The power generated today is 4120 mw. The Corporation plans to install six more plants to generate additional 3160 mw and by 2020 take it up to 20,000 mw. The Planning Commission has said that at best the deal will raise our nuclear power generation from 3% to 7%, which does not sound like a break through.

The Uranium used in the plants is from Indian uranium reserves which are assessed at between 80,000-1,12,000 metric tonnes. We have utilised 478 metric tonnes per year in our power plants and our nuclear arsenal requires an additional 32 metric tonnes. If we were to quadruple our energy output we would use up 2,000 metric tonnes per year. At this rate, uranium reserves would meet our power generation needs for the next 40-50 years.

Our nuclear research in fast breeder reactor (FBR) using thorium reserves would multiply nuclear fuel potential manifold. All these needs would be met by the use of our own internal reserves, and the pool of our own trained manpower. There would, thus, be no need of submitting to inspections, test moratoriums, and annual certifications by other nations or the looming threat of recall of nuclear material.

The deal is indeed a great triumph for the US business community, which stands to gain entry to $100bn power generation industry in India. There are, however, obstacles to the US vendors’ entry to the Indian power generation market. The US firms would like a cap on third party risk cover in case of accidents, acts of terror, saboteurs etc.

These are real and live dangers known to all of us, who are well-versed with media reports. India has so far not signed the Convention of Supplementary Compensation. This is a global fund for victims of nuclear disasters The Government of India’s action in these areas is bound to be watched closely. A major high point of this deal has been the NSG waiver.  We need to exploit it for and advanced power plant design and building contracts with France and the UK.

The pace of our progress should be guided by our installation of enhanced security apparatus to protect these high-value assets and the aam aadmi. If our borders are secured against illegal immigration, and the influx of men and material tightened we could reach zero tolerance of terrorist acts. However, this goal has eluded successive Governments in the 60 years of our Independence. The will and the resolve seem to be missing. If our leaders could attain this goal, this would be the best investment towards our regional, global power status and erase the soft State image.

In the long run, internal security would attract further investments and ensure progress. This systemic change would make symmetric cooperation with the US possible and meaningful within our lifetime.

It would be prudent for us not to import nuclear plants from the US under the deal till the position is clear and the ambiguities removed probably by the new administrations installed in both countries. In the meantime, it must be made clear that our strategic goals will be on their planned course and related to our national security requirements.

The cooperation with the US must provide access to computer simulation as a path to testing. This may take care of our needs towards maintaining a credible deterrence for a few years.

There can be no economic, regional or global super power status without first installing a robust and alert internal security system. There is need for a broad consensus to be built around our national identity and national goals. These values and identities emerge from ongoing dialogue and debate between the Government of the day, political parties and the aam aadmi.

Regrettably, this approach was not adopted before the pursuit of the nuclear deal was embarked upon. It was hyped as a one Party miracle without taking the polity and the people into confidence. This resulted in a lack of resonance and widely prevalent suspicion in the minds of the political parties and cross sections of the people.

The statements in Parliament, the debate and the manner of obtaining votes have not reassured the aam aadmi. One earnestly hopes that the coming elections will provide space for taking this issue to the people. Such a debate will empower the newly-elected members to examine the deal and improve it to render the aam aadmi as a beneficiary.

Clearly, the deal impacts India’s sovereignty, military links, foreign policy and economy.  The future role of the country post the nuclear deal will depend upon an in-depth review and redefining of its contents to include balance and parity in obligation for the signing parties. --INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 26 December 2008

Global Economic Crisis

INDIAN PHARMA industry LETHARGIC

By Radhakrishna Rao

Not long back, the buoyant and fast growing Indian pharmaceutical industry had raised hopes of turning the country into a veritable “pharma power house” of the world in the not too distant future. Spurred on by a steady growth in the export of drugs, formulations, vaccines and outsourcing of various services, the pharma sector was justifiably optimistic of making it to the world’s top ten by value in the near future. However, the global economic slow down coupled with a credit crunch prevailing in the Indian market has conspired to slow down the industry’s prospects.

Accordingly, a spokesman of the Indian pharma industry admits that “a perceptible slow down in industrial production and economic growth have been a major causative factor for a decline in our growth projection.” A forecast by Pharmexcil, a Government of India agency that monitors the export volume of drugs and pharmaceutical products reveals that exports are likely to drop by 5 per cent during the current financial year i.e. these will touch Rs 361-billion as against the original projection of Rs 382-billion.

Incidentally, pharma exports account for 6 per cent of the total export from India. However, appreciation of the US green buck against the Rupee has not in any way gone to benefit the Indian pharma exporters. “The depreciation gains are being offset as imports have become more expensive now. India imports its raw materials for manufacturing drugs and pharma products from China and other countries. But the Rupee depreciation has disabled us” reveals an industry spokesman.

The US, which happens to be the world’s largest market for generic drugs accounts for half of India’s total pharma and drugs export. However, the ongoing slow down in the American economy has resulted in a decline in the sale of pharma products and this could in turn exert a negative impact on the volume of pharma products exported to the US.

 “With the new Obama Government, we expect sales to drop further. This means that the bottom line of the Indian companies, which export to the US, will be affected. We expect our global exports to grow by 14-15 per cent during 2008 in comparison to 20 per cent last year” observes the head of Pharma Exports Council of India.  However, there is a silver lining for the pharma industry: in recent years, European countries have emerged as a lucrative alternative market for Indian pharma products and services.

The ongoing global economic melt down has also adversely affected the expansion plans of the pharma sector. For instance, Reliance Pharmaceuticals is mulling a scale down of its planned products portfolio from an initial 75 products to just 25. Earlier, the company had drawn an ambitious and comprehensive plan for an impressive foray into the regulated US and European markets with its high value generics. This apart, industry sources are also worried about a possible decline in “outsourcing”, considered a growth area of the Indian pharma industry,  in this recent financial crisis.

In the meantime, the Indian pharma companies are hopeful of making good the projected loss on the export front through increased sales in the domestic market. The rural hinterland is tipped to be the growth area for their products. Fortunately, all said and done, the Indian drugs and pharmaceutical sector looks at the current slow down as a temporary phase and is quite optimistic of surging ahead with renewed vigour once the crisis blows over.

This can be said, following a major triumph for the industry, wherein Hyderabad-based Dr.Reddy’s Laboratory has announced that Betapharma AG, its wholly-owned subsidiary has been offered eight drug contracts in different regions of Germany. Says its spokesman: “for the eight products offered, we expect a significant increase in volume though at relatively lesser margins”.

Indeed, the global excellence achieved by the Indian pharma industry, including cases such as Dr Reddy’s and Ranbaxy, and the strides made by the research organizations and biotech outfits in developing novel drugs and enzymes are slowly turning India into a major hub for clinical trials of drugs and vaccines developed by the Western pharma giants.

Thus amidst all this, clinical research is one of the most promising growth areas for the Indian pharma sector. As a fallout of a steady increase in outsourcing by western pharma and drug firms, the number of Indian outfits in the area of clinical research has crossed to 100 from less that 10 a few years ago. Not surprisingly then, keen on getting a slice of  the highly lucrative clinical research outsourcing market, many pharma and biotech companies in India are busy setting their house in order and preparing themselves for being world-class clinical research units.

In fact, by all counts there is a growing realization that India would need to strengthen its infrastructure for trial sites and enhance its quality level of clinical trails through ramping up of the operations with a particular focus on training and evaluation of test procedures. As pointed out by Dr.Ramananda Nadig, President, Clinical Research Education and Management Academy (CREMA) “India’s clinical trial industry will require at least 20,000 investigators and over 30,000 managers by 2010”

A fact-filled status report brought out by global consulting firm McKinsey reveals that India has the potential to become the third largest market for pharma products and services in terms of incremental growth, after the US and China. By 2015, this market is expected to assume a size of US$20-billion.

Moreover, with a rapid and sustained expansion of health care services, the demand for new and innovative pharma products and novel therapies is expected to go up by substantial extent. As things stand now, Indian pharma industry is poised to move up the value chain by making transition from reverse engineering to discovery and development of new molecules. India has also emerged as a preferred global supplier of high quality drugs and intermediaries at an affordable price.

In the ultimate analysis, there is no denying the fact that the Indian drugs and pharmaceutical sector has made rapid forays into the global arena, across varying business segments and has clearly shown its ability to play a leadership role in each of these, notwithstanding the global economic crisis. –INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

People & Their Problems

New Delhi, 31 December 2008

Return of Avian Flu

PREVENTION NOT CURE IS REMEDY

By Radhakrishna Rao

The dreaded avian flu has resurfaced with a vengeance, posing a serious threat to the flourishing poultry industry in Assam and parts of adjoining West Bengal. It was in November 2007 that the prevalence of this much-feared viral disease affecting domestic poultry was first detected in the outskirts of Guwahati. From there, the disease sneaked into parts of West Bengal, throwing the over Rs.40, 000-crore poultry sector of the State into turmoil.

It led to some panic selling among poultry farmers and traders started taking advantage of the situation by forcing them to sell broilers at un-remunerative prices. In fact, the waves of fear caused by the spread of disease in Assam and West Bengal have led to poultry prices dropping by around 25% across the country. In addition, there is a fear that the spread of the disease could also affect the export prospects of the poultry industry.

Not surprisingly many countries have put India under their “watch list” insofar as buying poultry products are concerned. However, the biggest relief is that so far no country has officially banned import of our poultry products. Significantly, the country’s export of poultry products has increased from Rs.2870-million during 2004-05 to Rs.3500-million during 2007-08. The major chunk of the revenue for Indian poultry products was from West Asian countries, Japan and Germany. With an annual poultry production of two-million tonnes India is ranked fifth among the largest poultry producing countries.

More than half a million birds, including chicken and ducks have already been culled in over seven locations of Assam and the local administration has already paid a compensation of Rs.1.45-crore to the poultry farmers. Meanwhile, in a related development about 60 chicks seized from the Railway Police in Orissa, while being transported from West Bengal were culled in Rourkela. This was the second such culling incident in Orissa after a thousand-odd birds, transported into the State in a passenger bus were culled near Balasore.

Unfortunately, the bad news of the avian flu resurfacing in Assam came in less than three weeks after India was considered free from this disease, which has the potential to spread to humans. Though still not a global pandemic, avian flu is known to have killed around 300 people since 2003. Experts specializing in poultry diseases have pointed out that the H5NI virus, which is responsible for the avian flu and kills poultry animals also manages to exchange genetic material between species of specific viruses.

As a matter of fact, the severity of the disease affecting humans is determined by the state of the immune system. However, there is no effective cure to treat the disease, the symptoms of which include, fever, cough, sore throat,  muscle pain, conjunctivitis and in some cases breathing complications and pneumonia. Oseltamivir, commercially marketed under the brand name Tamiflu helps in inhibiting the spread of virus, but the World Health Organisation is uncertain about the drug’s effectiveness.

According to a study by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) the H5 NI bird flu virus “has not only become more contagious to humans but has managed to persist in parts of Asia, Africa and probably even Europe,” and warns that it has the potential to trigger a human influenza pandemic.

The People for Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) is of the opinion that the unhygienic conditions in the poultry farms of Assam  was most likely the cause for the out break of avian flu. Apparently it had warned the Assam Government in June 2008 about the disease surfacing again but regrettably it wasn’t taken seriously. The H5NI virus thus affected 120 villages spread across the seven districts of the State. Like the popular adage, of bolting the stable after the horses have left, the Assam Government decided to set up an expert committee to hopefully prevent a similar outbreak of the disease in future. On another front, its Forest Department has decided to monitor the migratory birds visiting the State during this winter.

Recall, that the WHO had termed the outbreak of bird flu in West Bengal in January 2007 as the worst-ever case reported in India. Over four million birds had then been culled. The reason given was that the viral strain causing the avian flu spreads with stunning rapidity, and the best preventive measure was to immediately cull the domesticated birds on a largescale. It goes without saying that medical researchers are now concerned that the H5NI virus could acquire genetic strength” to facilitate its spread from humans to humans in the long run.

A disquieting feature of bird flu is that there is no fool-proof protection against it through vaccination. This is so because no one is certain as to what shape the virus would assume after mutation period. “Viral disease such as avian influenza does not recognize boundaries. The development of an indigenous vaccine, however, could go a long way towards tackling its threat effectively” according to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research.

Apparently, it has been seen that H5NI virus flourishes and causes fatalities in areas where humans are in close touch with domesticated birds, such as chickens and fowls. At the same time, the FAO is of the firm opinion that properly cooked poultry and eggs are safe to consume. However, as a precautionary measure, partially cooked poultry and raw eggs need to be avoided. This is so because eggs can carry H5NI virus both on the outside and the inside.

”People need to be informed about the importance of basic hygiene, notably washing hands after touching poultry and disinfecting boots or shores  before entering or leaving a poultry farm” is  FAO advice. Even then, oweverk, How there remains the concern that mass culling of birds could put people at risk of acquiring the virus. And, as only a small percentage of the population is aware of the dangers of bird flu, it is time we educate the public and launch an intensified awareness campaign about the do’s and don’ts. Why wait for another episode? ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)